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Q: the supply side structural reforms on the current economic authorities to see how to do
The central economic work conference held at the end of last year, the economic work on the "45" at the beginning of the year were fully deployed, stressed the need to focus on promoting the supply side structural reform, to promote the sustained and healthy development of economy. How serious study, deep understanding, the correct implementation of the spirit of the central economic work conference, focusing on the supply side of the structural reform of the main line, do a good job in the new year of economic work? Recently, the authority to accept the exclusive interview with this newspaper, on the supply side of structural reform as the interpretation and interpretation.
Ask
How to correctly understand the "supply side structural reform" policy implications?
Promote the supply side structural reforms, both a clear idea, but also a clear idea, as well as specific tasks. To firmly stem, boldly dry, solid stem, accurately, must not back to stem not tightening demand, supply and demand two tactics to catch, but secondary to the clear. At present, it is necessary to improve the supply structure as the main direction
Not to engage in a new "planned economy", but in order to better play the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources, clear the power of the government
Authoritative: for the supply side of structural reform, there are a variety of interpretation. From the national conditions of we may wish to use "supply side + and the structural reform" such a formula to understand that in order to improve the quality of the supply of reform promote structure adjustment and correction of distortion of factors allocation, expand the effective supply, improve the supply structure changes in demand for adaptation and flexibility, improve the total factor productivity and better meet the needs of the broad masses of the people, and promote the sustained and healthy development of economy and society.
Promote the supply side structural reforms, both a clear idea, but also a clear idea, as well as specific tasks. All localities and departments should be in accordance with innovation, coordination, green, open, sharing "development of the concept of the five", adapt to the economic development of the new normal, implement macroeconomic policies should be stable, industrial policy and microeconomic policies to live, the reform policy to be real, social policy underpinning the overall train of thought, around to capacity, to the inventory, deleveraging, reduce costs, and make up for weaknesses in the five key tasks, firmly stem, boldly dry, solid stem, accurately, must not back on dry land.
Correctly understand the structural reform of the supply side, to eliminate two kinds of misunderstanding:
A misconception is that structural reforms to promote the supply side are the implementation of demand contraction. The relationship between supply and demand is not either or. The two are mutually conditions, mutual transformation, two tactics to catch, but primary and secondary to clear. Contradictions and structural contradictions exist in the current economic cycle, but the main contradiction has been transformed into structural problems. Therefore, we must in moderate expansion of aggregate demand and adjust the structure of demand at the same time, efforts to strengthen the supply side structural reforms, the improve the supply structure as the main direction for us, to realize from the balance between supply and demand of the low level to the high level of supply and demand balance jumped. Of course, to promote the supply side structural reform process, the need to create a stable macroeconomic environment, in the demand policy, not to engage in strong stimulus, but also to prevent the occurrence of a pro cyclical contraction.
Another misconception is that the structural reforms to promote the supply side is to engage in a new planned economy". On the contrary, supply side structural reform is to give full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources, through to further improve the market mechanism, correction before rely too much on the administrative allocation of resources caused by element allocation distortion. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust all kinds of distortions of policy and institutional arrangements, subject to further stimulate the market vitality, better play the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources. This is socialist market economy under the new situation to improve and deepen, never want to go back to the old planned economy. The past is due to the role of the market mechanism to play enough and too much government intervention, resulting in the market can not timely clearing, lead to a variety of structural contradictions. For example, some did not benefit the zombie companies, in some places must be forced to give subsidies, loans.
Of course, under the good supply side structural reforms this big game, but also to better play the role of the government's hand. The most important government clearly the power of the boundary, in a spirit of self revolution, in the administrative intervention do "subtraction", to "let go" as the biggest "starting point". At the same time, "let go" does not mean "smoothing", the government should earnestly implement the macroeconomic control, market supervision, public services, social management, environmental protection and other basic functions. To expand the open is the reform of the title, we want to create a better investment environment, attract more foreign investment. Now, the United States and Europe and other developed countries are attracting investment in our country, we have any reason to believe that China's foreign investment!
Two.
Why should the current emphasis on structural reform of the supply side?
From the three overlay to the new normal, and then to the structural reform of the supply side, is a continuous exploration, deepening the understanding of the process
To promote the structural reform of the supply side, is to correctly understand the economic situation after the choice of economic governance prescriptions. No matter what the subjective thinking, can not be contrary to the objective laws. Do not pay close attention to change, one day will go into a dead end
"Four down a liter" and other prominent contradictions and problems are mainly structural. Under the current situation, the national economy can not be achieved through short-term stimulus V type rebound may experience a L growth phase. To solve the medium and long term economic problems, the traditional Keynes prescription has limitations, the fundamental way is structural reform.
Authority: to promote the supply side structural reforms, with Xi Jinping as general secretary of the CPC Central Committee on the basis of integrated analysis of the world economic long cycle and China's development stage and characteristics and their interaction, and the whole Party and the people's wisdom, from theory to practice constantly explore the crystallization.
From the three overlay to the new normal, and then to the structural reform of the supply side, is a continuous exploration, deepening the understanding of the process. 2013, the central government believes that China's economy into the three phase of the superposition, made clear that we should look at the economic situation". In 2014, the Central Committee put forward the "new normal" of economic development, and made a systematic theoretical discussion, which not only further deepen the "how to see", but also for "how to do" to indicate the direction. In 2015, the 11th meeting of the central financial work leading group put forward to promote the "supply side structural reform". It not only deepens the "how" and "how to do" understanding, but also to further clarify the main direction, overall train of thought and working key. The central economic work conference held in December 2015, to supply side structural reform from the theoretical thinking to concrete practice, a comprehensive exposition, from the top-level design, policy measures until the key tasks made the deployment of the whole chain.
Promoting structural reform of the supply side, is the trend, the situation dictates. This is the correct understanding of the economic situation, the choice of economic governance prescription. China's economy is from extensive to intensive, from a simple division of labor to the advanced form of the complex division of labor, which is an objective requirement. We can't go against the objective law, no matter what we think. The extensive mode of economic development once in our country play a significant role, but now and then in accordance with the sort of in the past, the extensive mode of development to do, not only domestic conditions do not support, international conditions do not support is not sustainable. Do not pay close attention to change, one day will go into a dead end. This point, must be recognized in place. To bring into play the great potential and advantages of our country, we must accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development, speed up the adjustment of the economic structure, and speed up the formation of new growth momentum. By changing the way of economic development to achieve sustainable development, a higher level of development, which is the middle-income countries across the Middle Income Trap must pass through the stage.
Promote structural reform of the supply side, the problem is forced to pass through the barrier. In the transition period of China, economic development for the better long-term fundamentals have not changed, economic good toughness, potential is sufficient, basic characteristics of large room for maneuver has not changed, good foundation and conditions for sustained economic growth does not change, economic structure adjustment and optimization of forward momentum has not changed. But on the way forward, we must break away from the long-term accumulation of some structural, institutional, and quality of the outstanding contradictions and problems. These contradictions and problems recently are mainly manifested in the "four down a liter, i.e. a decline in economic growth, industrial goods prices fell, entity enterprise profit decline, increase revenue decline, economic risk occurrence probability rise. These problems are not cyclical, but structural. For example, if the structural contradiction of excess capacity is not resolved, the price of industrial goods will continue to decline, corporate efficiency can not be promoted, economic growth will be difficult to sustain. At present, China's considerable capacity is in world economic growth golden period for external demand and domestic high-speed growth phase formation, in responding to the impact of the international financial crisis, some of the capacity and expanded, slowing growth in the international market, relying solely on stimulating domestic demand is difficult to solve the problem of excess production capacity, which is equivalent to prepare two table rice, a table of the guests, hard to eat could not finish eating. This is not only the problem we encountered, the other countries have also encountered. Understanding the supply side structural reforms, in the final analysis, is to see in the global economy and the domestic economic situation, national economy impossible through short-term stimulus V-shaped rebound, may experience a L phase of growth. Committed to resolving the long-term economic problems, the traditional Keynes prescription has limitations, the fundamental solution lies in structural reform, which is a major move we have to take.
Three.
To promote the structural reform of the supply side is to adapt and lead the new normal economic development of major innovation, the focus of the work should be how to change?
The "ten pay more attention to" scale, not on the thing can't stem, for things to work harder and creative stem. Of earthquake as small earthquakes, small victories
Authority: the central economic work conference proposed to adapt and lead the new normal economic development, structural reforms to promote the supply side, to strive to achieve the transformation of the focus of the work of ten areas. This is to promote economic development, we should pay more attention to improve the quality and efficiency of development; stable economic growth, we should pay more attention to the supply side structural reform; the implementation of macro-control, we should pay more attention to the social and psychological expectations guide market behavior; the adjustment of industrial structure, we should pay more attention to promoting the urbanization, add, subtract, multiply and divide simultaneously; we should pay more attention to the human centered; the promotion of regional development, we should pay more attention to the balance of population spatial economy and resource environment; protection of the ecological environment, we should pay more attention to promote the formation of green production and consumption; to protect and improve people's livelihood, to pay more attention to the precise helping specific groups with special difficulties; the allocation of resources, we should pay more attention to make the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources; expand opening up, we should pay more attention to promote two-way open high level.
In practice, all localities and departments should be to "ten pay more attention to" scale, not on the thing can't do, to get the thing to work harder. For example, drainage irrigation strong stimulation, blind expansion of the new city and strengthen administrative allocation of resources the intervention of things can't do, no investment return, the product does not have the market, the environment has not improved items can no longer be. On the contrary, it is advantageous to guide social and psychological capacity to resolve excess, to enhance the technical level, to accelerate the urbanization of the population, promote the free flow of factors of production, increase poverty alleviation and accuracy of things to do hard, creative work, strength of the workman and art dry, to large earthquakes as small earthquakes, plot a small victory for the victory.
Four.
To promote the structural reform of the supply side, how to correctly grasp the general idea of macroeconomic policy?
Be stable macroeconomic policy, industrial policy should be accurate, microeconomic policies to live, reform policy to be real, social policy underpinning to. Five pillars of the policy, the overall integration of organic combination, mutual cooperation, to promote the supply side of structural reforms to create a better environment and conditions
Authority: as mentioned earlier, at present and in a period to come to in a modest expansion of aggregate demand at the same time, efforts to strengthen the supply side structural reform, the implementation of the "five major policy pillars" and that macroeconomic policy to steady, industrial policy to be accurate, microeconomic policies to live, the reform policy to real, social policy underpinning. This "five pillars" of the specific content has been published and widely recognized by all aspects, but how to more accurately grasp the need to further clarify. Five pillars of the policy, the overall integration of organic combination, mutual cooperation, aimed at promoting the supply side structural reforms to create a better environment and conditions:
Macroeconomic policy to stabilize, is to create a stable macroeconomic environment for structural reforms. To adhere to the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, but the focus and efforts have been adjusted. Active fiscal policy should increase efforts to implement tax cuts for enterprises, and use the method of stage to improve the budget deficit to make up the gap between revenue and expenditure. Prudent monetary policy to an appropriate degree of flexibility, mainly reflected in structural reforms to create the appropriate monetary and financial environment and to reduce the cost of financing, it is necessary to avoid Pro cyclical austerity, also do not have literally drain, but according to changes in the financial markets were fine-tuning, to maintain a moderate growth in appropriate and sufficient liquidity and total social financing.
Industrial policy to prospective is to according to the direction and the requirement of structural reform, the function of industrial policy to be guided, rather than the government so as to identify specific projects, or choose to invest in a company which, specific investment opportunities also by entrepreneurs to explore and grasp. Practice has proved that the choice of the market is the most effective. Now the success of the private enterprise which is a government support? Is in the market economy spring tide rushes out. Is the so-called "flowers flowers open, no gander".
Micro policy to live, is to take the enterprise as the main body of economic development, water fish, so that enterprises to create effective supply and development of the consumer market.
Reform policy to be real, is to introduce a new one, a steering, so that the specific reform initiatives landing, to promote the implementation of structural reforms in the supply side of major decisions.
Social policy underpinning, is to from the thought, funds, materials, and other aspects are fully prepared, and effectively hold the bottom line of the people's livelihood, providing a more harmonious and stable social environment for the supply side structural reforms.
Five.
What are the key tasks of the structural reform of the supply side?
Complete to capacity, to inventory, deleveraging, reduce costs, and make up for weaknesses in five key tasks, it is necessary to continuous force, for a long time for the power of tenacity, also has Li said, immediate Henjin do addition and subtraction, multiplication and division. Long term to see all the tasks are conducive to enhancing the development of power, short-term look at different tasks have a "hedge" effect, must be comprehensively promote, and grasp the "degree"". There is a pressing matter of the moment disposal of zombie companies, continue to reduce excess capacity, let the "zombie" laid to rest
The root cause is the system problem, must rely on reform and innovation to resolve
Authority: promote the supply side structural reform, strategy we want to focus to fight a protracted war, continue to Wenzhongqiujin, grasp the rhythm and strength; tactics we should seize the key points, committed to fight a battle of annihilation, mainly do a good job to productivity, to the inventory, deleveraging, reduce costs, and make up for weaknesses in the five key tasks. The five key tasks requires both continuous force, for a long time for the power of tenacity, also need to have Li said, immediate Henjin, ensure the 2016 excess capacity and real estate inventory reduction, rising costs of enterprises and industrial product prices fell momentum has been checked, the effective supply capacity has increased, fiscal and financial risks has been released.
Complete the "five key tasks" to do "add, subtract, multiply and divide". Five key tasks is a system design, to focus on the optimization of the stock, to guide the incremental, active reduction, up and down. In the long term, the task is conducive to enhance the development of power; in the short term, there is a "hedge" between different tasks. For example, to resolve the real estate inventory growth is a significant addition, you can slow down to the production capacity of the subtraction effect. And to the production capacity and will adjust the supply and demand, to prevent the occurrence of macroeconomic deflation effect. Therefore, the five key tasks must be comprehensively promote. Of course, the implementation of a region, and will be focused, the key is to grasp the degree". At present, doing addition is relatively easy to understand, do subtraction difficult will be a little bigger, but it must be done. It is imperative to categorically disposal zombie companies, unswervingly to reduce excess capacity, so that the "zombie" buried, freeing valuable physical resource, credit resource and market space. Zombie enterprise was already dead in there, not to maintain the. Old not to go, new not to come, this is the objective law of metabolism, is the requirement of the socialist market economy competition principle, to dare and be good at carrying on this kind of "creative innovation"".
Complete the five key tasks to comprehensively deepen reform. "The specific content of the five key tasks" very much, but the root cause is the system problem. Whether it is the disposal of the zombie enterprise, reduce business costs, resolve real estate inventory, improve the effective supply or to prevent and defuse financial risks, the fundamental way to solve the reform and innovation. Such as reducing transaction costs of enterprise system, reduce the burden of taxes and fees, reduce the cost of capital, we must reduce the administrative examination and approval, reform of the fiscal, taxation and financial system; to expand effective investment to make up the short board, it is necessary to reform of the fiscal and taxation, banking, investment and financing system, in order to solve the "where the money came from, where to put to the problem. At the same time to see these key tasks are completed, essentially is a major innovation practice, only a top-level design innovation, institutional innovation, seize the opportunity to for technical innovation, can effectively promote the major structural reforms.
Six.
Some people worry that the structural reforms to promote the supply side will bring a certain social impact, the community can bear?
The pain is inevitable, but it's worth it. The appropriate back is to better advance. Only back enough to move forward
As long as the handle properly, the pain will not be great, can bear. But to promote the process of conflict and impact, must not be careless, specific policies to be orderly, secure implementation
Window period is not endless, the problem will not wait for us, the opportunity will not wait for us. Supply side structural reforms drag, and can not afford, otherwise, the disease will be more and more serious
Authority: promote the supply side structural reforms, especially to resolve the excess capacity, dispose of "zombie" companies, will bring some impact and the impact is likely to extending from the economic field to the social area. In this regard, we can grasp from several angles:
The pain is inevitable, but it is worth it. Our country in the throes of structural adjustment, region, industry and enterprise development differentiation is obvious, can be described as a few joy some unhappy. In advance in the process of supply side structural reform, can not be happy, the industry will shift, the enterprise will be the survival of the fittest, employment will be reorientation of the changing of the guard. In particular, some of the current business may be more worried about, or even close down, causing layoffs and unemployment, income, etc.. But the pain is the throes of delivery and the birth of a new way of life and full of hope in the throes of, metabolism, is the Phoenix Nirvana, which is worth it! The appropriate back is to better advance. Only back enough to move forward. As Lao Tzu said: "if the Ming Mei, Jindaoruotui." Take zombie companies is waiting for this kind of enterprise bankrupt the industry of high-quality enterprises, finally die together or cut the Gordian knot, this kind of enterprise so as to make the necessary resources and market space disposal? Clearly, must be dealt with as soon as possible zombie enterprise, to achieve the overall improvement of the quality and efficiency of economic development.
Pains are to be able to bear, but must not be careless. Compared to the 90 's of the last century, now China's strength is very strong, good fundamentals of economic development, new power is strengthening, new forms appear constantly, the outlook is bright, the economy will not appear formula down the cliff. Social employment situation, financial scale, security system has made great progress, strong anti risk ability, as long as the proper treatment, although there are labor pains, but not very large, will not appear on the scale of the problem of laid-off workers. Especially the masses of the people we optimize industrial structure, enhance the development efficiency is understanding, support, to improve our quality of development, product quality, the quality of the air is full of expectations. This is our greatest confidence. At the same time, to promote the process of conflict and impact, must not be careless. Specific policies to promote orderly and orderly implementation of the policy. For example, the disposal of zombie companies, as much as possible mergers and acquisitions, less bankruptcy liquidation, the bankruptcy of enterprises as far as possible to implement the euthanasia". To attach great importance to do a good job in the work of the staff and workers, to prevent the risk of social. Do social underpinning work more carefully, for example, individual overcapacity serious area will appear workers laid-off and fiscal expenditure is difficult, to in-depth and meticulous research and implementation of supporting measures, carefully took out a policy response.
It should be emphasized that the supply side structural reform has a window period, but the window period is not endless, the problem will not wait for us, the opportunity will not wait for us. Today is not to "ruling" the reform and development, it may face greater pain tomorrow. So, supply side structural reform is had crossed the ridge, is to penetrate the, this reform can not be dragged, can not afford, must to speed up the pace, stepping up, to avoid "condition" is becoming more and more serious.
Q
How to ensure that the supply side structural reforms to achieve the desired results?
At present there are a three cases for understanding the new normal, everyone wants to look in the mirror, understanding is not in place as soon as possible to improve grip, do not adapt the ideas to change mind as soon as possible
Will the indecisive when decision is needed. The courage to do something to offend people, or else had the first day can not be fifteen, the burden left behind, the future will offend the people of the world
Eliminate interference, distractions, learn make good use of the political economics of socialism with Chinese characteristics, firmly grasp the following major principles, to promote the formation of supply side structural reforms on the whole force
Authority: there is no doubt that this is not an easy thing, can not be done overnight, but to avoid opportunism. We only have to deepen understanding, determination, hard work, in order to achieve tangible results.
Understanding of the new normal, to adapt to the new normal, leading the new normal, is the current and the future of China's economic development in a period of great logic. From the current situation, there are three kinds of understanding of this large logic:
The first is the gradual deepening of awareness, to adapt more active, leading has begun. This situation is increasing, it is good.
Second is the understanding is not in place, a little less active adaptation, leading the basic inaction, mere slogan. This kind of situation is more common.
The third is very not adapt, did not get rid of the speed of the complex, shift anxiety, the thinking, the result of action consciously or unconsciously reverse the line.
Everyone should look in the mirror, to the first move closer to understanding is not in place as soon as possible to improve grip and ideology to change mind as soon as possible. To improve awareness, but also by a solid work and indomitable perseverance to complete this historical responsibility. Will the indecisive when decision is needed. In the process of advancing, the courage to do something to offend people, or too early to have fifteen, the results of the delay window period, the burden left behind, the future will offend the people of the world. In 1998 we are also faced with sluggish external demand, insufficient domestic demand, the plight of the excess capacity, then withstood the pressure, the textile industry implementation of large-scale production of spindles, only the strong growth in the economy later, only today of the comprehensive national strength continued to improve.
Promote the supply side structural reform, we must strengthen and improve the party's leadership over the economic work, eliminate interference, distractions, firmly in the several important principles to hold the Chinese characteristic socialist political economics:
First, adhere to the liberation and development of social productivity. The fundamental task for the primary stage of socialism is to liberate and develop the productive forces, which is the core of the political economics of socialism with Chinese characteristics, any bondage and hinder the development of social productive forces, the words and deeds are a departure from the essence of socialism requirements must firmly opposed. Should always adhere to the economic development as the center of the center, take the initiative to study the laws of development, and constantly promote scientific development, and continuously improve the lives of the people.
Two is to adhere to the socialist market economy reform direction. Deepening the main line of the economic system reform is to let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, which is the productivity could be the liberation of good, good development and supply side structural reform success major principle problem. For the role of government, stressed that "better play", not "more play", to concentrate on those markets can not manage or tube bad things.
Three is to adhere to mobilize the enthusiasm of all aspects. People are the most active factor in the productive forces, we must fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the people, fully mobilize the central and local two initiative, which is an important experience since the reform and opening up. At present, should pay attention to the mobilization of entrepreneurs, innovative talents, cadres at all levels of enthusiasm, initiative, creativity. To create a relaxed environment for entrepreneurs, is expected with a stable and transparent legal environment, give them reassurance. To establish and improve the incentive mechanism for innovative talents, to mobilize their enthusiasm. Of cadres at all levels, it is necessary to adhere to the principle of incentive and constraint simultaneously, which adhere to the party discipline "high-voltage lines", we should also pay attention to the positive incentives, improve the fault tolerance error correction mechanism, a clear-cut stand to the painstaking work, cadres of unselfishness, backing and encouraging.
In short, we must learn to make good use of the political economy of socialism with Chinese characteristics, to gather together the strength of the various aspects of the supply side to form a structural reform of the overall force.

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